The Record
Judged by Reality
Every call on this page was filed in writing before the
outcome, with a confidence number and a stated condition that would
prove it wrong. Reality does the grading. Nothing is curated, nothing
is deleted, the misses are the point.
Stamps: RIGHT / WRONG / OPEN. Reality
assigns them, not us. A wrong stamp never disappears.
Confidence: how sure we were, in writing,
before the outcome. 60% means "we expect to be wrong 4 times in 10."
Being wrong at 60% is normal; being wrong at 95% is the scandal.
Accuracy score: how much better our
confidence numbers are than coin-flipping. For professionals: it's a
Brier-based skill score; for everyone else: higher is better, zero
means guessing.
Open Calls, reality hasn't ruled yet
Add your own prediction; you'll be scored
against ours.
Settled, judged by reality
The Post-Mortems
When we're wrong, we say so in first person.
Click one to read.
Us vs the Crowd
Our probability against the prediction-market
price on the same question, shown only after reality has ruled.
The Watch, vanished & silent
Left: loud headlines no one ever confirmed.
Right: topics that stopped being reported without being resolved.
Sources Report Card
We keep score on the outlets we read: does what
they print get confirmed, or does it vanish?