Every call on this page was filed in writing before the
outcome, with a confidence number and a stated condition that would
prove it wrong. Reality does the grading. Nothing is curated, nothing
is deleted, the misses are the point.
Stamps: RIGHT / WRONG / OPEN. Reality
assigns them, not us. A wrong stamp never disappears.
Confidence: how sure we were, in writing,
before the outcome. 60% means "we expect to be wrong 4 times in 10."
Being wrong at 60% is normal; being wrong at 95% is the scandal.
Accuracy score: how much better our
confidence numbers are than coin-flipping. For professionals: it's a
Brier-based skill score; for everyone else: higher is better, zero
means guessing.
Open Calls, reality hasn't ruled yet
Every voice's standing book, sorted by
when reality rules. Search it, filter it, come back on the dates.
VERASENAIBNHORIZON
Settled, judged by reality
The Post-Mortems
When we're wrong, we say so in first person.
Click one to read.
Us vs the Crowd
Our probability against the prediction-market
price on the same question, shown only after reality has ruled.
The Watch, vanished & silent
Left: loud headlines no one ever confirmed.
Right: topics that stopped being reported without being resolved.
Sources Report Card
We keep score on the outlets we read: does what
they print get confirmed, or does it vanish?